Betting USC-Notre Dame: Why the Irish could slow down the high-powered Trojans

Notre Dame enters this week at 4-2, still clinging to any faint hope of sneaking back into the playoff conversation. The Irish need a signature win to even stay in that discussion.

On the other side, Lincoln Riley has USC looking like USC again: fast, balanced and ruthless on offense. But now the Trojans step into a matchup that's built to test exactly what has made them dominant so far.

All odds by ESPN BET 

No. 20 USC Trojans at No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

Line: Notre Dame -9.5
Money line: Notre Dame (-340), USC (+270)
Over/Under: 60.5 (O -115, U -105)

USC's nation-leading offense faces its first true test

The Trojans are first in the country in offensive success rate and first in net EPA per play, which essentially means every snap has positive value.

Success rate doesn't necessarily mean hitting big plays; it means gaining enough yardage often enough to keep the offense in manageable situations. EPA per play takes that a step further by quantifying how much each play increases the chances of scoring.

When you lead the country in both, it says your offense is explosive and efficient. In other words, USC isn't wasting possessions.

Against Notre Dame, that efficiency gets tested in a different way. The Irish force teams to grind through full drives, play patient and execute in the red zone. That's where USC's profile can either shine or unravel. The Trojans have been elite between the 20s, but their red zone touchdown rate in road games drops to about 55 percent, a problem that has carried over from last season. Notre Dame's defense has the tackling and structure to make USC earn every inch.

If USC stays on track in early down plays and avoids third-and-longs, they can dictate. Otherwise, the very metrics that have defined their offensive dominance could be the ones that slow them down.

Betting prediction: USC under 25.5 points 

It sounds counterintuitive when they haven't scored fewer than 31 points all season, but that streak will be put to the test this week against Notre Dame.

The Irish are 57th in defensive EPA per play, inconsistent from week to week, dominant against the run in stretches and vulnerable against vertical speed. Structurally, though, they're equipped to limit USC better than anyone the Trojans have faced because they tackle well, close space and rarely give up free yardage, grading inside the top 30 in both run defense and tackling. That directly challenges USC's rhythm.

The Trojans thrive on early-down success, while Notre Dame forces long drives and wins in the red zone. USC has converted only 55% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns on the road compared to more than 70% at home. That drop-off is a continuation from last year.

USC also just converts 55% of third downs overall but only 44% on the road, mirroring their red zone struggles.

To hit the over, USC needs to play even more efficiently against a defense that takes away the middle of the field and forces third and medium. That's the handicap, that 10-20 yard range where Jayden Maiava completes only 49% of his passes, which plays directly into Notre Dame's defensive strength. And that's where Notre Dame can steal a few stops or interceptions.

It's worth noting: USC is also 8 of 9 in fourth-down conversions on the road. The key question is sustainability. One or two failed attempts could have a ripple effect, not just ending drives but also flipping field position and cutting into their overall scoring potential.

That's where Notre Dame's offense could play a role, equipped with a run game led by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, both of whom are gaining momentum over the past few weeks. Their yards per game, yards per rush and run-play rate are all trending up. Fewer drives mean fewer chances for USC to reach its scoring average, especially if one or two possessions end in field goals instead of touchdowns.

Without home-field rhythm, stalled drives are exactly how Notre Dame can hold USC under 25.5 points. Call it situational regression. Against this opponent on the road, their streak finally meets resistance.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• USC is 2-10 ATS on the road since 2023, tied for worst in FBS during that stretch.

• Notre Dame is 16-5 ATS against ranked opponents since 2022, best in FBS (min. 10 games).

• The Fighting Irish are 22-9 ATS as a favorite since 2023, best among power conference teams (min. 15 games).

• The Trojans are 6-11 ATS as a non-conference underdog since 2012, but 3-1 ATS in past four games.