College Football Playoff National Championship game preview

One of the more delightful college football regular seasons on record gave way to the longest college football postseason on record. Now, we've got one more game left.

On Monday night in Atlanta (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), Ohio State, a nearly 10-point favorite, will seek its first national title in 10 years while underdog Notre Dame will seek its first in 36. Each has won three playoff games this postseason, though one has escaped the wrath of the injury bug more than the other.

The first expanded College Football Playoff gave us a couple of classic games and enduring storylines. Now, we get to see how the story ends. Here's everything you need to follow -- injuries, burning questions and the tale of the tape -- to get ready for Monday night.

Finally another chance for Notre Dame

Since beating West Virginia to secure the national title in 1988, Notre Dame's journey has been one of almost relentless quality mixed with a lack of genuinely elite play. The Fighting Irish have averaged an AP top-five finish about every six years. They nearly won the title in 1993, played in the BCS championship game in 2012 and played in the CFP in 2018 and 2020. But they lost their three semifinal or title games in the 2010s by an average score of 34-7, consistently hitting their head on the proverbial ceiling.

According to SP+, however, this season's Irish grade out better than any Notre Dame team since 1992, when Lou Holtz's squad went 10-1-1 with a loss to Stanford and a tie with Michigan. Marcus Freeman's team suffered a shocking loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2 but has won 13 straight since. In the playoff, the Irish have taken down Indiana, Georgia and Penn State teams that otherwise went a combined 35-5.

Aside from some issues in the passing explosiveness department, this is a beautifully well-rounded team, one capable of absorbing an incredible number of season-ending injuries and continuing to thrive. The Irish suffered multiple offensive line injuries against Penn State in the semifinals but gutted out 10 points in the final five minutes to overcome a late deficit and advance.

The Irish have taken on "team of destiny" characteristics, but quite a few seeming "teams of destiny" have had their stories unceremoniously foiled. The title game will present the best opponent Notre Dame has faced all year.

Talent and redemption for Ohio State

The past seven weeks for Ohio State have produced one of the larger roller coasters imaginable. In my Big Ten season preview, I wrote two things that have basically played out as expected. First: "The fact that [Ryan] Day's entire program seemed to have fallen into an existential crisis at the end of last season speaks to the unique pressure of a job like Ohio State. Every loss is reason for panic, and a loss to your chief rival is equivalent to a five-game losing streak." Second: "If the team lives up to its capabilities this fall, however, hearts and minds will be swayed. Ohio State has the single-most proven unit in the country -- third-year coordinator Jim Knowles' defense -- and an offense with the five-star talent, new coaching input and new quarterbacks who could allow it to bounce back after a down year."

On Nov. 30, Ohio State indeed lost to chief rival Michigan for the fourth straight time and plunged into yet another existential crisis. And in the three games since, the Buckeyes have glided to three playoff wins thanks to otherworldly defense and five-star offensive contributions.

Over his first six full seasons in charge in Columbus, Ryan Day has produced what will soon be four top-five finishes, a six-year win percentage better than Jim Tressel's and an average SP+ percentile rating (98.4%) better than Urban Meyer's (95.4%).

Day has done the one thing you can't do as Ohio State's coach -- lose to Michigan a lot -- and yet he has led a particularly brilliant run and is one win from matching the national title count of both Meyer and Tressel.

One big injury (literally and metaphorically)

Ohio State has reached the finish line in awfully good shape from a health standpoint. The offseason acquisition of Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins has lessened the load on star back TreVeyon Henderson, and they've both looked great in the CFP, combining for 371 rushing yards, 180 receiving yards and 9 total touchdowns in three games. The Buckeyes had to shuffle their offensive line because of injuries to starters Josh Simmons (left tackle) and Seth McLaughlin (center), but guard-turned-tackle Donovan Jackson has looked spectacular lined up out wide, and the Ohio State line has been strong since the loss to Michigan.

Notre Dame's injury list is lengthier. Like the Buckeyes, the Fighting Irish had to change their offensive line plans due to season-ending injuries, but the hits have kept coming. First, star corner Benjamin Morrison was lost in the middle of the season, then defensive tackle Rylie Mills was lost one round into the CFP. Notre Dame somehow emerged from those issues unscathed. You never know when and how your depth will be tested, but Freeman's Irish have passed every depth test with flying colors.

They head into their biggest game with even more offensive line issues, however. Left tackle Anthonie Knapp was injured against Penn State and is out for the title game. According to Sports Info Solutions, his replacement, Tosh Baker, had five blown blocks in 58 snaps against the Nittany Lions (three pressures, two blown run blocks), an 8.6% blown block rate that is more than double Knapp's 3.3% for the season.

Right guard Rocco Spindler was also injured against PSU but is expected to play against Ohio State. If he or Baker struggles, we could see a lot of Charles Jagusah, 2024's projected starting left tackle who was seemingly lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle back in August. (The season is so long now that guys with season-ending injuries can return!) He was excellent filling in for Spindler in the semis, but obviously this is a thin line to have to toe heading into a game against the best defensive front in the sport.

Tale of the tape

Before we get into the game's biggest questions, let's lay out the matchups. Pitting head coach vs. head coach, quarterbacks vs. defensive coordinators, running backs vs. linebackers, receiving corps vs. secondaries and offensive lines vs. defensive lines, let's tell the tale of the tape.

Marcus Freeman vs. Ryan Day. I just basically tried to insinuate that Day has done as good a job as Jim Tressel or Urban Meyer at leading Ohio State, so obviously I think he's pretty good, Michigan games aside. But no coach in college football has improved as quickly or impressively as Freeman.

Including the Fiesta Bowl to end the 2021 season, Freeman lost his first three games as Notre Dame's head coach, making plenty of game management mistakes in the process. But he has won 17 of his past 18 games, and in his past three games he somewhat significantly outcoached Indiana's Curt Cignetti, Georgia's Kirby Smart and Penn State's James Franklin. No team knows itself better than the Fighting Irish, who understand they aren't going to be getting many big plays from their passing game but figure out ways to compensate through an explosive run game, a human third-down conversion in quarterback Riley Leonard, increasingly awesome special teams and a defense that pounces on every mistake. Freeman's assuredness on the sideline is palpable, and while Day and his staff feel pressure at all times, Freeman & Co. are playing with house money.

Advantage: Notre Dame.

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard vs. Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Knowles engineered brilliant improvement in 2023 and sustained it in 2024. Despite the increasing strength of schedule associated with three playoff games, the Buckeyes rank first nationally in points allowed per drive (1.0), first in yards per play (4.1), first in yards allowed per drive (22.8), first in percentage of opponents' plays gaining at least 10 yards (14.6%), first in red zone touchdown rate allowed (41.7%), first in yards allowed per dropback (4.6), first in sacks per dropback (10.3%), third in success rate allowed (34.1%) and third in three-and-out rate (41.2%). They don't allow big plays, and even when you piece together a good drive, they crush you in the red zone. It's honestly unfair.

Leonard, Notre Dame's first-year transfer quarterback, is exactly what could have been expected when he arrived from Duke. Among the top 25 quarterbacks in Total QBR (Leonard is 15th), Leonard ranks only 10th in completion rate (66.4%), 12th in passing success rate (48.3%) and a damning 25th in yards per dropback (6.5), but he also ranks third in scramble rate (11.2%), third in non-sack rushing yards (959), fifth in designed run rate (18.5%) and seventh in sacks-to-pressures ratio (13.6%). He's going to throw safe, short passes and use his 6-foot-4, 216-pound frame as though it's a Cam Newton-esque 6-foot-5, 250. He has given Notre Dame an identity, and he is an incredibly dangerous third-and-manageable run threat. But Knowles has the weapons and the tactics to make his life hell.

Advantage: Ohio State.

Notre Dame offensive line vs. Ohio State defensive line. In three playoff games, defensive ends Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have combined for 12.5 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, 6 run stops, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble return touchdown and 7 pass breakups, and big tackle Tyleik Williams has played the best ball of his life. Notre Dame, meanwhile, is breaking in a new starter at left tackle and might have a banged-up right guard. Even with Jagusah playing well in a tiny sample, this one's an easy call.

Advantage: Ohio State.

Notre Dame RBs vs. Ohio State LBs. Against Penn State, Jeremiyah Love certainly hinted that he was healthier than he'd been in the past few games by attempting a glorious and ill-advised hurdle on a 2-yard gain in the fourth quarter and unleashing one of the toughest 2-yard touchdown runs you'll ever see.

Ohio State's Cody Simon and Sonny Styles have combined for 196 tackles, 17 TFLs and 12 sacks, and Styles was one of the Buckeyes' most dominant players in the semifinal win over Texas. But Notre Dame has feasted on big run plays all season, and if Love is in good shape, this is a matchup the Irish can win or at least split.

Advantage: Push.

Notre Dame receiving corps vs. Ohio State secondary. Jordan Faison was one of Notre Dame's best offensive players in the Irish's first two CFP games, and Jaden Greathouse was a difference-maker against Penn State, catching seven passes for 105 yards and a score. Tight end Mitchell Evans is good, too. But in Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom, Ohio State might have the best safety tandem in the country, and while corner Davison Igbinosun is willing to clutch and grab and risk penalties and Denzel Burke is nursing a shoulder injury, it's hard not to lean toward the Buckeyes here.

Advantage: Ohio State.

Ohio State quarterback Will Howard vs. Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden. Like Ryan Day, Will Howard has both the easiest and most absurdly high-pressure job imaginable. He has one of the best running back duos in college football next to him in the backfield, and he's got Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate lined up outside. All he has to do is get the ball into one of these players' hands, and he will produce good numbers for himself. But in the season's biggest moments, the Ohio State quarterback must produce at a particularly high level; otherwise, he will be regarded as a failure. Kyle McCord threw for 3,170 yards with a 24-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio last season but was run out of town because he failed against Michigan.

Howard also failed against Michigan. But he has taken full advantage of the bonus opportunity the 12-team CFP allotted him. Against three top-15 defenses (per SP+), he has completed 74% of his passes and averaged 306.3 passing yards per game.

Notre Dame ranks fifth in defensive SP+, just behind both the Tennessee and Texas defenses against which Ohio State scored 70 combined points. But I'm still going with Golden in this matchup because he's on a damn roll. Despite losing his best cornerback in October and his best defensive lineman in mid-December, Golden's Irish defense has allowed just 17 points per game in the CFP, allowing 4.9 yards per play, forcing four turnovers, holding Indiana and Georgia well below their efficiency averages and erasing any hope Penn State had of making big plays. The Irish allowed more than 24 points just once all season and have held 11 of 15 opponents to 16 or fewer points. Against three extremely different offenses, Notre Dame met the challenge, and now Golden has had a few extra days to figure out how to force some mistakes from Howard.

Advantage: Notre Dame.

Ohio State offensive line vs. Notre Dame defensive line. This might be where the game is decided. Following the aforementioned injuries and shuffling, Ohio State's offensive line was vulnerable. The Buckeyes scored just 21 and 20 points in their first two games after losing left tackle Josh Simmons, and their 10-point dud against Michigan came in just their second game without center Seth McLaughlin. According to Sports Info Solutions, they committed just 2.4 blown blocks per game over their first five contests, then 8.3 per game in the seven games after the injuries began. They've cut that to 6.7 in three CFP games, and they've allowed just two total sacks.

Even without Rylie Mills, Notre Dame's defensive front has been awfully good in the CFP, too. The Irish held Indiana and Georgia to a 32.7% rushing success rate, though Penn State had a good amount of success in this regard. (That might be a bit of a warning sign.) Junior Tuihalamaka (maybe more of an OLB than defensive end, but we'll include him here) might have been the best player on the field in the win over Georgia, and the linemen at least occupied blockers well enough for Notre Dame's linebackers to limit Penn State's big run plays. Both units were hit-and-miss in the semifinals, but there's an opportunity here for both teams.

Advantage: Push.

Ohio State RBs vs. Notre Dame LBs. The Notre Dame linebacking corps, with Drayk Bowen, Jack Kiser and Jaylen Sneed (combined: 43 tackles, 5 TFLs, 4 run stops, 11 pressures and 1 sack) leading the way, is excellent. But again: TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are averaging 183.7 yards per game from scrimmage, and Henderson is a home run threat on every touch. I'm pretty sure I would give Ohio State the edge in this matchup against any opponent in the country.

Advantage: Ohio State.

Ohio State receiving corps vs. Notre Dame secondary. It's the same situation here. Notre Dame lost Benjamin Morrison but continued to play man coverage (usually just one high safety) more than any team in college football, and no one has really made the Irish pay for it. Even USC, the only team to score more than 24 on them, needed 49 passes to reach 360 yards, and only two teams have topped even 6.7 yards per dropback. Safeties Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler have delivered both safety and playmaking, and corners Christian Gray and Leonard Moore are excellent.

But Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate are simply the best receiver trio in the sport. Texas schemed away Smith's deep-ball capabilities with deep safety plays and safe zone coverage, so Egbuka and Tate caught 12 passes for 138 yards, and Howard still completed 73% of his passes for 289 yards. Al Golden has a massive decision to make when it comes to continuing his aggressive man coverage and Cover 1 scheme against this unit or attempting to contain the Buckeyes a bit more like Texas tried. I'm not sure there's a right answer.

Advantage: Ohio State.

Notre Dame special teams vs. Ohio State special teams. At the end of the regular season, Notre Dame ranked 100th in special teams SP+, primarily because it was 131st in my field goal efficiency measure. South Carolina transfer Mitch Jeter, beset by a groin injury, was only 6-for-12 on field goals, and backup Zac Yoakam was 2-for-5. The rest of the Irish's special teams unit was solid, but they were giving away points in scoring opportunities.

They aren't giving those points away anymore. Jeter had a 37-yard field goal attempt blocked late against Indiana, but he's otherwise 7-for-7 in the playoff and has nailed shots of 41, 41, 44, 47, 48 and 49 yards. Throw in Jayden Harrison's kick return score, and you've got a special teams unit that is peaking at the right time.

But Ohio State's is fine, too -- Caleb Downs has a punt return score, and place-kicker Jayden Fielding has been automatic outside of a couple of jarring glitches against Michigan (who didn't suffer glitches against Michigan?). If momentum were a thing in special teams, I'd lean Irish, but we'll play it safe here.

Advantage: Push.

So, of the 10 matchups, Ohio State likely holds the advantage in half, while Notre Dame holds two advantages with three pushes. If nothing else, that shows us the matchups the Irish most desperately need to win to give themselves the best chance. Winning the special teams battle, forcing problems for the Buckeyes' offensive line and taking full advantage of whatever big-play opportunities they get in the run game could even the tables a bit.

Three burning questions

With that in mind, here are three burning questions I have for how things might play out.

1. What does the success script look like for a banged-up Notre Dame offense?

According to SP+, Ohio State has played five games against top-20 offenses this season: Oregon (twice), Penn State, Indiana and Texas. Those teams averaged 35.4 points per game and 6.4 yards per play for the season (counting Oregon twice). Against Ohio State, they averaged 19.0 points per game and 4.9 yards per play.

In talking to a number of coaches and analysts about this game in recent days, each conversation has quickly reached a point where someone sighs and says, "I just don't see how Notre Dame scores enough." So let's lay out a script for how the Irish might.

Here are the Fighting Irish's biggest offensive strengths:

They're fourth in average starting field position. Granted, this is more of a defensive strength, but if the Irish are forcing some short Ohio State drives, they could give the offense less distance to travel, and Jeter's leg has done a nice job of salvaging points in the CFP.

They're seventh in percentage of plays gaining zero or fewer yards (25.5%) and 26th in success rate (46.1%). And while their explosiveness is lacking, they're 18th in passing success rate. They might not produce enough huge plays, but they're not moving backward. They know what they have in Leonard and his third-down rushing capabilities, and they give themselves manageable third downs.

They're 17th in red zone touchdown rate (72.4%) and eighth in goal-to-go touchdown rate (90.3%). Jeter has helped a ton in the CFP, but when the Irish can sniff the end zone, they usually get 7 points.

They're 32nd in turnover rate (1.6%). They've lost the turnover battle only twice all season: They were minus-2 against Northern Illinois (which played an obvious role in the upset) and minus-1 against Penn State in the previous round. In 13 other wins, they've committed just 11 turnovers, and they're plus-20 overall.

Even if we assume there's no way for the Irish to match their season averages in some of these categories, here are some things to keep in mind:

• Teams that committed zero turnovers won 77% of their games in the FBS in 2024. Teams that committed either zero or one won 65%.

• Teams with an average field position advantage of any kind won 77% of their games in 2024. Teams with an advantage of at least 2 yards per drive won 80%.

• Teams that produce a passing success rate of at least 40% have won 69% of their games. Teams that produce an overall success rate of at least 39% have won 67%. Teams that have gained zero or fewer yards on less than 37% of their plays have won 66% of their games.

• Teams that converted at least 45% of their third downs won 73% of their games.

• Teams that scored on at least two-thirds of their red zone trips (minimum: three trips) won 73% of their games.

Without big plays, the margin for error is limited. But if Notre Dame can use third-down conversions to help win the field position battle and create a couple of scoring opportunities (and finish its red zone chances with touchdowns), and if it can avoid turnovers, it can piece together a winning strategy in the aggregate. Leonard might have to run the ball 20 times, but it's not impossible for the Irish to at least work their point total into the 20s.

2. How did Texas erase Jeremiah Smith?

Penn State, Notre Dame's last opponent, had the most "players over plays" approach imaginable on offense. The Nittany Lions figured out as many ways as possible to get the ball into the hands of their three stars: Nicholas Singleton (15 rushes, six pass targets), Kaytron Allen (19 rushes, one target) and tight end Tyler Warren (seven targets, two rushes from direct snaps).

Now the Irish face Chip Kelly's Ohio State offense, which sometimes feels like the direct opposite. Buckeyes receiver Jeremiah Smith was the best player of the first two rounds of the CFP, recording 17 targets, 13 catches, 290 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Smith had only five catches for 35 yards against Michigan, however, with Will Howard throwing to Carnell Tate and tight end Gee Scott Jr. 14 times (8 catches, 64 yards) instead. And against Texas, Smith was targeted just three times and caught one ball for 3 yards. The one time Howard tried to force the issue and throw to Smith into coverage downfield, the ball was picked off. Once again, Tate and Scott loaded up with 14 targets, 12 catches and 117 yards. At one point in Ohio State's go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter against Texas, Kelly dialed up an easy pitch-and-catch screen pass ... to Scott! Then Howard threw to Scott again on the next play. Smith wasn't targeted again after the interception.

The trick for both Michigan and (especially) Texas? A safe zone defense. For the season, the Longhorns played man coverage only about 23% of the time, the 16th-lowest percentage in the FBS. They were at 10% against Ohio State. Notre Dame plays man coverage about 64% of the time, the highest percentage in the country. That's an awfully big difference.

The difference in Howard's performances against man and zone coverage is pretty noteworthy.

You can see some pretty clear differences in these charts. Howard is perfectly solid at finding quick holes in the zone near the line of scrimmage, but his (and lots of quarterbacks') downfield passing capabilities dissipate quickly. Against man, he's a little more hit-or-miss near the line of scrimmage but completes more shots downfield.

While Smith is the best in the country at beating his coverage opponent one-on-one, Egbuka is dynamite at finding space against zones out of the slot.

That Smith still has the best per-route average on the team against zone defense suggests that Kelly should have tried harder to devise ways to get the ball into the freshman's hands. But wherever the ball goes, Ohio State's passing game is less effective against zone. And that gives Al Golden one hell of a choice to make.

3. How will Al Golden attack Ohio State? (And how will Chip Kelly attack Notre Dame?)

The reason the Fighting Irish play extensive man defense is because they're fantastic at it. Even without Morrison, their Cover 1 defense -- man coverage with only one high safety and one lurking closer to the line -- has been just about the best in the country.

Against Cover 1, Notre Dame opponents have completed just 87 of 211 passes (41%) for 1,159 yards (13.3 per catch), 2 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and 19 sacks. The Irish have allowed a QBR of just 17.5 out of Cover 1, third nationally. It's their bread and butter, and you can see why.

With all-world safety Xavier Watts swooping in and threatening to intercept nearly every intermediate pass thrown -- five of his six interceptions have come from Cover 1 -- Notre Dame has erased some decent passing games with this look.

Ohio State's passing game, however, is better than decent. Against Cover 1 in 2024, the Buckeyes have completed 58 of 88 passes (66%) for 786 yards (13.6 per completion), 6 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and 2 sacks. Their 96.2 QBR against Cover 1 ranks first nationally.

Playing aggressive man coverage against Ohio State is an invitation to get torn up. Does Golden trust Christian Gray and Leonard Moore to hold their own against Smith? What about slot corner Jordan Clark against Egbuka? Does he lean on his bread-and-butter defense, which might make Notre Dame more likely to either win or get absolutely blown out? Or does he follow Michigan's and Texas' lead and play things a little safer to avoid big plays?

Golden's choices will likely dictate the choices Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly makes as well. After destroying both Tennessee and Oregon with a newfound love of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers), Kelly almost completely avoided going to that well against Texas, sticking almost exclusively with 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs).

In six plays out of 12 personnel against Texas, Ohio State gained just 19 yards. It was an early-downs cheat code against the Volunteers and Ducks, but three first-down snaps from 12 personnel produced only 2 yards and an interception against the Longhorns.

Based purely on results, you could say that playing zone with two high safeties has been the correct way to defend Ohio State. Notre Dame does the opposite. And while none of this matters if the Buckeyes are brutalizing the Fighting Irish with their run game and dominating the Notre Dame offense, Golden's aggressiveness -- and, more importantly, whether that aggressiveness is successful -- might make the difference in a tight game.

The projections

It's almost strange how little Notre Dame and Ohio State have played each other through the years. The Fighting Irish have played three current Big Ten teams at least 77 times each (USC, Purdue and Michigan State) and another eight teams at least 12 times. But the only Big Ten programs they have faced fewer times than Ohio State -- the Fighting Irish and Buckeyes have met eight times, with six Ohio State wins -- are Maryland, Minnesota, Oregon, Rutgers and UCLA.

Starting with a 45-26 win in Columbus in 1995, Ohio State has won six straight in the series. But Notre Dame won what was unquestionably the biggest game between the programs. In 1935, the final season before the AP poll came into existence, the Irish prevailed 18-13 in front of more than 80,000 fans in one of the first true Game of the Century-type contests the sport had seen.

Notre Dame trailed 13-12 late, but Andy Pilney forced a fumble, then suffered a season-ending injury on a grueling 30-yard run (1:15 into the video below) that took on the entire Buckeyes defense. Bill Shakespeare found Wayne Millner for the winning 19-yard touchdown pass with 32 seconds left.

Despite the Big Ten's incredible postseason run, Notre Dame will attempt to go 3-0 against the conference in the CFP on Monday night, and honestly, a win by the Fighting Irish might take on a score awfully similar to 18-13. It's hard to see them lighting up the scoreboard, but third-down conversions and victories in the proverbial Little Things categories (turnovers, field position, finishing drives) could certainly help them both control the clock and keep Ohio State's output tamped down.

It's more likely, however, that Ohio State's superiority shows itself over 60 minutes. The Buckeyes have been 2024's best overall team, they have the best defense, and they have an offense that appears built to defeat what Notre Dame does best. The 2024 season has been an absolute delight, and here's to hoping that it ends with one more great game, but it seems most likely to end with Ryan Day and the scarlet and gray lifting the national title trophy.

ESPN BET projection: Ohio State 26.8, Notre Dame 18.8 (OSU -8, over/under 45.5)
SP+ projection: Ohio State 27.6, Notre Dame 21.7