College football futures market shakes up after second CFP rankings release

The second release of the College Football Playoff rankings has brought significant movement, with some teams rising and others falling. Indiana made a notable jump to No. 5, continuing their impressive season, while BYU climbed to No. 6, further solidifying their playoff hopes.

On the other hand, Miami dropped five spots to No. 9 after a shocking loss to unranked Georgia Tech, and Georgia tumbled nine spots to No. 12 following a disappointing defeat at home to Ole Miss. With these shifts in mind, the futures market got a bit more murky. Here's a look at some of the changes plus one wager to consider.

All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET. 

Biggest risers

No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (+2500) and No. 6 BYU Cougars (+7500)

Indiana's rise into the top five is a significant achievement, particularly as it marks the first time in program history that the Hoosiers have reached ten wins in a season. They maintained their undefeated record with a narrow victory over Michigan, showcasing their ability to compete in high-pressure situations. This impressive performance, combined with the chaos surrounding other top teams, including Miami's loss to Georgia Tech, justified Indiana's leap from No. 8 to No. 5. The committee recognized the Hoosiers' strong season and potential for further success, especially as they continue to vie for a spot in the playoff.

Indiana is listed at -500 to make the playoff, +340 to miss, and +750 odds to win the Big Ten. These odds are aligned with their current No. 5 ranking, reflecting confidence in their ability to make the playoff if they continue their strong season. However, the +750 odds to win the Big Ten highlight some uncertainty about whether they can secure the conference title, likely due to potential matchups against powerhouses like Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten championship game.

Entering Week 6, Indiana was +900 to make the playoff and entering Week 11, +1100 to win the conference, buying back on the current +340 price for them to miss presents an intriguing counter. If you believe Indiana might struggle down the stretch or falter in a critical game, this could be a smart way to lock in some profit or mitigate potential losses depending on how their season unfolds.

BYU also made a notable jump in the rankings, after their hard-fought victory against rival Utah. With a perfect record of 9-0 overall and 6-0 in Big 12 play, BYU has demonstrated consistent performance throughout the season. The committee awarded their efforts not only for maintaining an undefeated status but also for capitalizing on the misfortunes of teams ranked above them. As a result, BYU is now positioned as the third seed in the projected playoff bracket, reinforcing their status as a contender in this year's playoff race.

BYU is listed at +100 to make and -130 to miss the playoff, with +175 odds to win the Big 12 as the second favorite. While BYU's ranking justifies optimism about their playoff chances, the odds reflect some caution due to potential challenges ahead. The Cougars saw little movement in their odds, from +120 to make the playoffs entering Week 11, suggesting that while they are in a strong position, the market remains wary of potential obstacles in their path to secure a spot.

Biggest fallers

No. 9 Miami Hurricanes (+4000) and No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs (+900)

Miami's precipitous drop from No. 4 to No. 9 is a direct result of their shocking 31-28 loss to unranked Georgia Tech. This defeat not only shattered Miami's undefeated record but also exposed significant vulnerabilities in their defense, which had been flawed in multiple games this season. The committee's decision to drop Miami five spots reflects the severity of losing to an unranked opponent this late in the season, especially when other top contenders continue to win. Miami's strength of schedule has been questioned throughout the season with zero wins over ranked opponents, and this loss amplifies concerns about their ability to compete at the highest level. While still in the playoff conversation, Miami's path has become significantly more challenging, and they'll need to win out convincingly and likely require help from other teams to climb back into the top four.

Miami is listed at -150 to make, +120 to miss the playoff, and +100 as the favorite to win the ACC, reflecting confidence in Miami's ability to win the ACC and potentially secure a playoff spot. While Miami's path has become significantly more challenging, they'll need to win out convincingly and likely require help from other teams to climb back into the top four.

Georgia's dramatic fall from No. 3 to No. 12 represents one of the most significant drops for a top-ranked team in recent CFP history. The Bulldogs' unexpected 35-21 loss to Ole Miss at home was a major factor in this decline, but the committee's harsh assessment goes beyond just one defeat. This loss, coupled with questions about Georgia's overall body of work, led to their steep descent in the rankings. The manner of the defeat -- being outplayed on both sides of the ball at home -- raised serious doubts about Georgia's ability to compete with the nation's elite teams. While Georgia's playoff hopes aren't completely dashed, this ranking indicates they have a mountain to climb to have any chance of returning to playoff contention.

The playoff odds for Georgia at -450 to make and +300 to miss do not seem fully aligned with their current No. 12 ranking. After dropping nine spots following a loss, the odds still heavily favor Georgia making the playoff, likely because of facing the toughest strength of schedule in the FBS. Oddsmakers believe they have a strong chance of bouncing back and securing a spot despite their current position outside the top 10.

Bet to consider: SMU Mustangs to miss the playoff (-180)

SMU to miss the playoff at -180 odds could be a good wager for several reasons. SMU is currently in a strong position in the ACC, but their playoff chances are far from guaranteed, as their probability sits at 38%. This assumes they win out and claim the ACC championship. If the Mustangs lose either one of their remaining regular-season games (against Virginia Cavaliers or Cal Bears) or the ACC championship game (likely against Miami), their path to the playoff becomes very difficult.

SMU's only loss this season came against BYU, which doesn't hurt them too much, but their overall strength of schedule (81st) isn't as strong as other Power 5 teams. If they finish the season with two losses (either in the regular season or the ACC championship), it would be hard for them to secure an at-large bid in a crowded field of one-loss and undefeated teams from stronger conferences.

The committee tends to favor teams from stronger conferences with better résumés, and SMU would need a lot of chaos among other top teams to sneak into the playoff as a two-loss team. While I initially considered betting on Miami to miss the playoff at +120 for the upside, given that SMU has a tough road ahead and is in a "win or out" scenario each week, betting on the Mustangs to miss the playoff at -180 offered more solid value.