College Football Playoff 2024: Week 12 bubble watch

With two-loss Georgia teetering on the edge at No. 12 in the College Football Playoff selection committee's latest ranking, it's clear the Dawgs need to beat the Vols to help cement their place in the postseason. If the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion is ranked outside of the committee's top 12, the No. 12 team will get bumped out of the bracket to make room.

If the playoff were today, No. 13 Boise State would elbow No. 12 Georgia out and earn the No. 12 seed because the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff.

Georgia is the fifth SEC team in the rankings and third with two losses, and Georgia lost to both of those other two-loss teams -- Ole Miss and Alabama. Its wins against No. 3 Texas and No. 20 Clemson are keeping the Bulldogs alive for now.

Below are three other takeaways from the committee's second of six rankings as well as a look at eight teams on the bubble, and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.

What we learned

The Big Ten is getting big love

The Big Ten owns four of the five top spots, with No. 1 Oregon in the top spot for the second week, followed by No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Penn State and No. 5 Indiana, which earned a bump after its win against Michigan. The committee has rewarded the undefeated Hoosiers for how they have won in spite of one of the nation's weaker schedules. That will change on Nov. 23 when Indiana plays the Buckeyes. Would a head-to-head win against the committee's No. 2 team catapult Indiana into that same spot? Tuesday's No. 5 ranking certainly makes it more realistic. It also gives each of those teams some margin for error heading into the final weeks of the season.

Could Boise State get a first-round bye?

The No. 13 Broncos aren't a lock to earn a playoff bid, as they still need to win out and win the Mountain West Conference, but they're certainly the favorite out of the Group of 5, as No. 24 Army and No. 25 Tulane are the next highest-ranked teams. If Boise State finishes ahead of the ACC or Big 12 champion,  the Broncos would earn a first-round bye, which is awarded to the four highest-ranked conference champions. Boise State is currently ranked ahead of No. 14 SMU, which could win the ACC. SMU and Miami are currently the leaders in line to play each other in the ACC championship game. If SMU beats Miami, it could jump ahead of Boise State -- or it could create a debate. No. 20 Clemson also could still win the ACC, and a two-loss ACC champion is more likely to be jumped by one-loss Boise State. The Broncos are also ranked ahead of the Big 12's second-best teams -- No. 16 K-State and No. 17 Colorado. Would the committee keep Boise State ahead of two-loss Big 12 champion Colorado?

The SEC chaos is still looming

Some of this will sort itself out, but this is the byproduct of conference realignment and no divisions -- teams are going to lose. More than once. The committee began to sort it out Tuesday, with No. 10 Alabama, No. 11 Ole Miss and No. 12 Georgia, followed by No. 15 Texas A&M. Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M still control their paths, but the Longhorns and Aggies play each other in the regular-season finale. Georgia hosts Tennessee on Saturday. There's a plethora of potential SEC title game matchups that even include three-loss LSU vs. Texas. How high can the Aggies jump if they beat No. 3 Texas? How far would Georgia climb if it beats No. 7 Tennessee -- having already lost to No. 10 Alabama and No. 11 Ole Miss?

Last two in

Why they should be worried: If Colorado wins the Big 12, and BYU finishes as a one-loss runner-up, does the committee put the Cougars in with Colorado? If so, how do they fit in and what does that mean for the committee's No. 11- and No. 12-ranked teams? It's possible either one -- or both -- of those teams could be displaced on Selection Day, depending on how everything unfolds.

ESPN Analytics says: Ole Miss has a 56.5% chance to reach the playoff, 10th best in the FBS.

Why they should be worried: As long as Boise State is one of the five highest-ranked conference champions on Selection Day, the Broncos will be in the playoff, but they still have to achieve that goal. If they don't, it could open the door for No. 24 Army or No. 25 Tulane.

ESPN Analytics says: Boise State has the best chance of any Group of 5 team to make the CFP (71%) ahead of second favorite Army (25.5%).

First four out

Georgia Bulldogs (8-2)

Why they are here: Boise State would knock the No. 12 Bulldogs out, but they have still played the toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and are No. 3 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric.

Chance to make conference championship: 1.7%

SMU Mustangs (8-1)

Why they are here:  The Mustangs were on the bubble last week, with their lone loss to undefeated BYU, but unless there are more upsets in front of them, SMU likely has to win the ACC, which is a very realistic possibility. Wins against Louisville and Pitt are helping the Mustangs in the committee meeting room. If they finish with two losses and no league title, though, it probably won't be enough to unseat a two-loss SEC team -- such as the one above.

Chance to make conference championship: 91.4%

Colorado Buffaloes (7-2)

Why they are here: The Buffaloes are playing well, but their best hope as a two-loss Big 12 team is to win the league, which is realistic. ESPN Analytics gives Colorado at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games. The biggest concern is the head-to-head loss to K-State, but Colorado only has one league loss while the Wildcats have two. If Colorado runs the table, it will face BYU, and that's why they're here even though the committee has them ranked No. 17.

Chance to make conference championship: 55.2%

Best win: Oct. 19 vs. Virginia, 48-31
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. South Carolina

Why they are here: The field goes as deep as the teams that can still win their conference, and the Tigers are the most likely spoiler in the ACC race, which is their best chance to reach the CFP. If they run the table, they would add a road win against Pitt and earn a tough win against rival No. 21 South Carolina, which would be highly regarded in the committee meeting room. Their only two losses are to ranked CFP teams (Louisville and Georgia).

Chance to make conference championship: 19%

Next four out

Kansas State Wildcats (7-2)

Best win: Oct. 12 at Colorado, 31-28
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Iowa State

Why they are here: The head-to-head win against Colorado looms large, but K-State joins Arizona State, Iowa State and West Virginia with two league losses. Of those teams, K-State has the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game. That slim hope is what's keeping No. 16 K-State in the mix, but the second league loss is why the Wildcats are in this batch and Colorado is above.

Chance to make conference championship: 23.8%

Texas A&M Aggies (7-2)

Best win: Oct. 26 vs. LSU, 38-23
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Texas

Why they are here: No. 15 Texas A&M is one of three teams that controls its path to the SEC title game, along with Tennessee and Texas. But the Aggies and Longhorns play each other in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas A&M only has a 5% chance to finish with two losses. It helps A&M that it's ranked ahead of K-State and Colorado.

Chance to make conference championship: 20.4%

LSU Tigers (6-3)

Best win: Oct. 12 vs. Ole Miss, 29-26 (OT)
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 at Florida

Why they are here: The only reason LSU is listed here is because it still has a 12% chance to reach the SEC title game and only has two league losses (the third loss is to USC). At No. 22 in the committee's ranking, it's clear the Tigers are a long shot, but even a three-loss team that wins the SEC is guaranteed a spot in the playoff. That third loss will keep them out of an at-large spot, but there is no limit to how many losses a conference champion can have, as long as it is one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

Chance to make conference championship: 12.4%

Best win: Nov. 2 at Clemson, 33-21
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 vs. Pitt

Why they are here: Much like LSU, the Cardinals are here simply because of the remote chance they can still reach and win the ACC title game, and they are a CFP top-25 team.

Chance to make conference championship: 5.4%

Group of 5 Power Rankings

Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Washington State, 45-24

Why they're here: The Broncos have the best combination of résumé and eye test, plus the selection committee was impressed with the close loss at Oregon.

Toughest remaining game: Saturday at San José State

Chance to win conference: 75.8%

Best win: Nov. 9 at North Texas, 14-3

Why they're here: They're a CFP top 25 team, which indicates the committee is taking them seriously. The Black Knights have the best chance remaining of any Group of 5 team to impress the committee -- against Notre Dame.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 vs. Notre Dame

Chance to win conference: 34%

Best win: Sept. 21 at Louisiana, 41-33

Why they're here: Because they have the best chance to win the American Athletic Conference, their two losses were to Oklahoma and K-State, and they've been quietly crushing their competition lately.

Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Navy

Chance to win conference: 60.2%

Best win: Oct. 19 at Oregon State, 33-25

Why they're here: The Rebels are eight points and one overtime away from being undefeated, and they've still got a chance to win the Mountain West Conference. If they beat Boise State in the league title game and avenge their regular-season loss, the Rebels' playoff chances would increase significantly.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at San José State

Chance to win conference: 20%

Best win: Sept. 28 at Wake Forest, 41-38

Why they're here: Because they've got such a strong chance to win the Sun Belt and they have only one loss -- to Tulane, ranked above -- but they still need lots of help.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Louisiana-Monroe

Chance to win conference: 55.3%